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Blackjack – The Advanced Red Seven “true Edge” Part3
I have used simple examples, which resulted in simple fractions. With very little practice, however, you should have no difficulty estimating your raise in advantage, even when the numbers are not so convenient.
For instance, if you are in an eight-deck game, with a running count of +4, and 3 1/2 decks are remaining to be dealt, you'll know that since 3 1/2 x 2 = 7, your fraction becomes 4/7.
This may be a more complicated calculation, but you should be able to determine in an instant that it's just slightly more than 1/2%. Likewise, with fractions like 5/7 or 6/7, just knowing that your advantage has risen more than 1/2% but less than 1% is all you need for purposes of bet-sizing.
In using this method, always round up to the nearest half-deck when you estimate the remaining decks for your denominator. For instance, if slightly less than five decks have been dealt, and you estimate that about 3 1/4 decks remain, round up to 3 1/2, and your denominator becomes 3 1/2×2 = 7. This way, your denominator will always be a whole number, which is very convenient. This method also assures that you are being conservative in estimating your advantage, and therefore, safer in bet-sizing. If you have any difficulty whatsoever calculating your denominator when 1/2-deck increments are involved, then simply look at the following chart:
1/2×2=1
11/2×2 = 3
2 1/2×2 = 5
3 1/2×2 = 7
4 1/2×2 = 9
5 1/2×2 = 11
6 1/2×2 = 13
7 1/2×2 = 15
I think most people with an average command of math can do this with little difficulty, but if you have trouble, then simply learn the chart.
Also, let me reemphasize that you should not be intimidated by "weird" fractions. If you come up with fractions like 5/13, 2/5, 5/11, or 4/9, so long as you know that these fractions are all less than 1/2—or even somewhere around 1/2—you have all the information you need to estimate your advantage. Most pros estimate their advantage to the nearest 1/2%, and it's impractical to attempt to size your bets with more accuracy than that.
Likewise, 12/10, 11/8, 9/7, and 5/4 are all slightly more than 1. Knowing that your advantage is slightly more than 1 % above your pivot advantage is all you need to know. You do not need to consider 9/7 as anything different from 12/10. For your betting purposes, just know that all of these fractions indicate a 1 % raise above your pivot advantage.
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Blackjack – The Advanced Red Seven “true Edge” Part2
Consider what happens to your advantage if, in this same eight-deck game, your running count is +6, but 5 decks have been dealt out, leaving only 3 undealt in the shoe. Your denominator becomes 3×2 = 6, and your fraction is:
6
6 = 1
So, at this point in the shoe, your +6 running count indicates a full 1 % raise in your advantage above your 1/2% pivot advantage, and your total advantage over the house is now 1 1/2%.
Another example: Assume that in this same game you have a running count of +6, but now six of the eight decks have been dealt, with only two left in the shoe. Using the true edge method, your denominator is 2 x 2 = 4, and your fraction is:
6
4 = 11/2
This deep in the shoe, your +6 running count indicates a 1 1/2% raise above your 1/2% pivot advantage, so that your total advantage over the house is now 2%.
Note that as the shoe is dealt deeper, the same +6 running count indicates an increase from your pivot advantage of anywhere from 1/2% to 1 1/2%. In fact, if the dealer distributed all but one of the decks in the shoe, and you found yourself with a +6 running count, your advantage will have risen by:
_6_ 6
1×2 = 2 = 3%
Technically, we are simply applying standard true count theory in a unique way to calculate the increased advantage when the running count rises above the pivot. The advantages calculated with this method are as precise as the standard balanced true-count methods used by most pros. From the examples above, you can see why professional players have always steered away from the running count systems. If you were to always bet according to your running count, then depending on the level of penetration, you will often over or under-bet your true advantage. The true edge method solves the problem.
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